MGM China is on track to deliver significant financial results for the final quarter of 2024, with analysts predicting an adjusted EBITDA of approximately HK$2 billion (US$250 million). This reflects a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase, showcasing the company’s strong post-pandemic recovery trajectory. Investment bank Jefferies estimates MGM China’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will rise by 7% to HK$8.5 billion (US$1.1 billion), outpacing the broader Macau gaming industry, which is forecasted to grow by only 3% in the same period. This growth positions MGM China as a leader in the market, with its share expected to climb to 15.8%, up from 14.8% in Q3.
VIP Segment Fuels Success
A key driver of MGM China’s success lies in its strong VIP segment performance. Analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei from Jefferies highlight that MGM’s strategic focus on attracting high-value customers has bolstered its market share. Despite this, rising operating expenses, including the launch of the Poly MGM Museum and the Macau 2049 residency show, are expected to temper EBITDA margin growth, which is projected to hold steady at 27%.
Nevertheless, the company’s investment in enhancing its Macau properties is seen as essential for sustaining its competitive edge. Combined property EBITDA for MGM Macau and MGM Cotai is forecasted to reach HK$2.1 billion (US$269.6 million), marking a 5% increase from the previous quarter.
Diversification Beyond Gaming
MGM China is prioritizing non-gaming attractions to diversify its revenue streams and appeal to a broader audience. The Poly MGM Museum, which opened in November 2024, and the Macau 2049 show, launched in December 2024, are central to this strategy. These initiatives aim to elevate MGM Cotai’s entertainment offerings and drive foot traffic from non-gaming visitors.
Kenneth Feng, MGM China’s president, has credited the company’s understanding of premium mass gamblers for its record-breaking revenue in 2023. This insight continues to guide the company’s long-term strategy of balancing gaming and non-gaming investments.
Challenges Ahead in 2025
While 2024 has been a year of strong recovery, MGM China faces a more competitive landscape in 2025. Rivals in the Macau gaming industry are expected to ramp up premium offerings and smart table technology, intensifying market competition. Despite this, Jefferies analysts believe MGM China’s focus on premium mass customers and property upgrades will help it maintain its market position.
The broader Macau gaming market is projected to see slower growth in Q4 2024, with only a 3% rise in GGR quarter-on-quarter. Still, MGM China’s robust VIP segment and non-gaming investments are anticipated to ensure its growth surpasses the industry average.
A Positive Outlook for MGM China
In summary, MGM China is expected to close 2024 on a high note, leveraging its VIP segment strength, market-leading strategies, and diversification efforts. As competition heats up in 2025, the company’s continued focus on premium mass customers and innovative non-gaming attractions will be critical to its sustained success.
MGM Resorts Eyes Strategic Expansion in the UAE
MGM Resorts has officially applied for a casino license in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), marking a significant move as the first major operator to pursue such an opportunity in the burgeoning Middle Eastern market. This bold step was announced by Bill Hornbuckle, CEO of MGM Resorts, during the Skift Global Forum 2024, as the company seeks to expand its global footprint into the UAE, specifically in Abu Dhabi.
MGM’s Strategic Move to Abu Dhabi
MGM’s focus on Abu Dhabi is a calculated effort to enter the region’s gaming market. Hornbuckle confirmed during the forum that the company submitted its application to the Abu Dhabi government, with the federal authorities overseeing the process. “Yes, we have [applied]. We’ve done it in Abu Dhabi,” Hornbuckle stated, explaining that both federal and local approvals are required for the license.
The UAE’s General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority (GCGRA) only began accepting casino license applications in July, creating a fresh opportunity that MGM was quick to seize. Despite having no operating hotels in the region, MGM’s current focus is firmly on securing the casino license, with Hornbuckle hopeful that the company will gain more clarity on the federal mandate by the end of the year.
Competitive Landscape: Wynn Resorts vs. MGM
MGM’s application follows Wynn Resorts’ high-profile development in the UAE. Wynn is investing $3.9 billion into a luxury resort in Ras Al Khaimah, expected to open in 2027, although Wynn’s casino license status remains unconfirmed. This intensifies the competition between the two casino giants, with both companies seeking to capitalize on the growing demand for entertainment in the region.
MGM has a strong foundation in the UAE, having established ties through past collaborations such as the CityCenter project in Las Vegas, which was a joint venture with Dubai World. In addition to its casino ambitions, MGM is developing a luxury resort in Dubai, set to feature brands like Bellagio and Aria, further cementing its commitment to the region.
Potential Market and Regulatory Outlook
The UAE represents a unique market opportunity for casino operators, particularly due to its large expatriate population. With expatriates making up between 80% and 90% of the UAE’s residents, the country is seen as an attractive destination for global tourists, particularly from India, China, and other Middle Eastern nations. As Hornbuckle noted, “It’s a huge travel market… Dubai airport is one of the largest airports, and I think it will be the biggest in the world.”
The broader shift towards legalized gaming in the UAE reflects changing attitudes in the region. The creation of the GCGRA signals a gradual loosening of restrictions, mirroring efforts in other Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar to diversify their tourism sectors. However, the UAE has not yet permitted its Emirati citizens to participate in casino gaming, a policy expected to continue.
MGM is optimistic about its chances, leveraging its long-standing regional relationships and proven track record in global gaming. “We’re excited by what it presents and we hope to be there,” Hornbuckle expressed.
Future Prospects: A Regional Gaming Hub?
If MGM succeeds in its bid for the casino license, it could become a key player in establishing Abu Dhabi as a premier destination for international gaming. As the UAE continues to evolve its tourism and entertainment sectors, the entrance of world-renowned operators like MGM and Wynn could transform the region into a competitive hub for the global casino industry.
