MGM China is on track to deliver significant financial results for the final quarter of 2024, with analysts predicting an adjusted EBITDA of approximately HK$2 billion (US$250 million). This reflects a 5% quarter-on-quarter increase, showcasing the company’s strong post-pandemic recovery trajectory. Investment bank Jefferies estimates MGM China’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will rise by 7% to HK$8.5 billion (US$1.1 billion), outpacing the broader Macau gaming industry, which is forecasted to grow by only 3% in the same period. This growth positions MGM China as a leader in the market, with its share expected to climb to 15.8%, up from 14.8% in Q3.
VIP Segment Fuels Success
A key driver of MGM China’s success lies in its strong VIP segment performance. Analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei from Jefferies highlight that MGM’s strategic focus on attracting high-value customers has bolstered its market share. Despite this, rising operating expenses, including the launch of the Poly MGM Museum and the Macau 2049 residency show, are expected to temper EBITDA margin growth, which is projected to hold steady at 27%.
Nevertheless, the company’s investment in enhancing its Macau properties is seen as essential for sustaining its competitive edge. Combined property EBITDA for MGM Macau and MGM Cotai is forecasted to reach HK$2.1 billion (US$269.6 million), marking a 5% increase from the previous quarter.
Diversification Beyond Gaming
MGM China is prioritizing non-gaming attractions to diversify its revenue streams and appeal to a broader audience. The Poly MGM Museum, which opened in November 2024, and the Macau 2049 show, launched in December 2024, are central to this strategy. These initiatives aim to elevate MGM Cotai’s entertainment offerings and drive foot traffic from non-gaming visitors.
Kenneth Feng, MGM China’s president, has credited the company’s understanding of premium mass gamblers for its record-breaking revenue in 2023. This insight continues to guide the company’s long-term strategy of balancing gaming and non-gaming investments.
Challenges Ahead in 2025
While 2024 has been a year of strong recovery, MGM China faces a more competitive landscape in 2025. Rivals in the Macau gaming industry are expected to ramp up premium offerings and smart table technology, intensifying market competition. Despite this, Jefferies analysts believe MGM China’s focus on premium mass customers and property upgrades will help it maintain its market position.
The broader Macau gaming market is projected to see slower growth in Q4 2024, with only a 3% rise in GGR quarter-on-quarter. Still, MGM China’s robust VIP segment and non-gaming investments are anticipated to ensure its growth surpasses the industry average.
A Positive Outlook for MGM China
In summary, MGM China is expected to close 2024 on a high note, leveraging its VIP segment strength, market-leading strategies, and diversification efforts. As competition heats up in 2025, the company’s continued focus on premium mass customers and innovative non-gaming attractions will be critical to its sustained success.
Regulatory Approval Pending for Mayfair’s Exclusive Casino
Wynn Resorts has unveiled plans to acquire Crown London, a distinguished members-only casino located in Mayfair, one of London’s most prestigious districts. The acquisition, still awaiting regulatory approval, is set to be completed in the second half of 2025. Until the transaction closes, the casino will retain its current branding under the Crown London name.
Crown London: A Jewel in Mayfair’s Luxury Crown
Nestled in two historic townhouses on Curzon Street, Crown London has been a landmark in high-end gaming since its establishment. Boasting 20 gaming tables within opulent private salons, along with a refined restaurant and lounge, the venue has long catered to an elite clientele from London and beyond.
Known initially as Aspinall’s Club, the casino was acquired by Crown Resorts in 2011 and renamed Crown London. As part of the acquisition, Wynn Resorts plans to restore the casino’s original name, Aspinall’s, once the deal is finalized.
Strategic Move to Connect Elite Clientele with UAE Development
While some may see this acquisition as a foray into Europe, Wynn Resorts CEO Craig Billings clarified that the move aligns with a broader strategy to bridge the company’s existing and upcoming luxury properties. “This acquisition of an iconic asset offers us a presence in a global gateway city and will create a conduit for Wynn guests to visit our resorts, particularly Wynn Al Marjan Island,” Billings said.
Set to open in early 2027, Wynn Al Marjan Island in the United Arab Emirates will feature a 225,000-square-foot gaming space, ultra-luxury accommodations, and world-class amenities. The $5.1 billion project aims to attract affluent global travelers, with Crown London serving as a key feeder market.
Crown Resorts Refocuses on Core Australian Assets
The sale of Crown London marks a pivotal step in Crown Resorts’ ongoing effort to streamline its portfolio and concentrate on its Australian operations. Crown CEO David Tsai noted, “The sale of Crown London aligns with our strategy to invest in our Australian assets and customer offering to deliver sustainable growth for the business in our core market.”
Amid regulatory challenges and economic pressures, Crown Resorts reported a loss of AU$164.8 million (US$111 million) for the financial year ending June 2024. As part of its restructuring, the company has divested international holdings, including its 20% stake in the Nobu restaurant chain.
A Strategic Addition to Wynn’s Global Portfolio
For Wynn Resorts, the acquisition of Crown London is more than a geographic expansion; it represents a strategic investment in connecting with the world’s wealthiest individuals. Research by Wynn indicates that London places the company within reach of 30% of the globe’s ultra-high-net-worth population.
Crown London’s intimate, members-only environment aligns seamlessly with Wynn’s luxury branding, promising a natural synergy between the Mayfair property and the UAE resort. This acquisition also extends Wynn’s influence beyond its established markets in Las Vegas, Macau, and Boston.
Looking Ahead: A Smooth Transition and a Bright Future
As the deal progresses, Wynn Resorts plans to collaborate with Crown Resorts to ensure a seamless transition for Crown London’s operations. The casino will continue its current offerings under the Crown London name until the acquisition is complete.
For Wynn Resorts, this move marks a significant milestone in its mission to redefine global luxury, while Crown Resorts strengthens its focus on core Australian assets. Together, these changes signal a new chapter for two major players in the gaming and hospitality industries.
MGM’s Shift to Digital Operations: A Strategic Pivot
MGM Resorts International is setting its sights on digital growth, with its online gambling platform BetMGM taking centre stage. As traditional casino operations face increasing challenges, Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that BetMGM’s performance will be pivotal to MGM’s valuation in 2025. This shift marks a strategic pivot for the company, prioritising innovation and digital ventures over brick-and-mortar casinos.
Fee Increases and Creative Revenue Strategies
Higher Fees in Las Vegas
MGM Resorts began implementing significant fee hikes at its Las Vegas properties in late 2024, increasing resort fees by $3 to $8 per day. Premium hotels like Bellagio, Aria, and Cosmopolitan now charge $55 daily, while mid-tier properties such as New York-New York and Luxor raised fees to $45. Parking fees also saw a steep rise, with valet services jumping to $40 daily. These adjustments are projected to add $70 million to MGM’s net revenue in 2025.
Innovative Revenue Streams
To further boost profitability, MGM is exploring creative revenue strategies, such as tiered seating in restaurants, where guests can pay a premium for prime seating areas. Though unlikely to significantly impact overall revenue, these low-cost measures are expected to improve margins and bolster earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA).
BetMGM: The Cornerstone of MGM’s Digital Expansion
A Major Player in Online Gaming
BetMGM, a joint venture with Entain, remains at the heart of MGM’s digital ambitions. Offering a wide array of online casino games and sports betting options, BetMGM has become a focal point for the company’s growth strategy. Deutsche Bank highlights the potential for MGM to consolidate its stake in BetMGM, enhancing control and streamlining operations—similar to its successful strategy with MGM China in 2011.
Positive Projections for 2025
Despite reporting losses in 2024, BetMGM is expected to transition into positive EBITDA territory in 2025. MGM has committed to improving transparency around BetMGM’s performance, ensuring investors have clear metrics to track its progress. Analysts anticipate that BetMGM’s profitability could significantly impact MGM’s overall valuation.
Challenges in Traditional Operations
Headwinds for Las Vegas Properties
MGM’s Las Vegas casinos face mounting pressures, including increased competition and rising operating costs. Analysts note that these properties require at least 3% annual revenue growth to maintain flat EBITDAR margins, highlighting the importance of diversifying revenue streams.
MGM China Under Pressure
After outperforming competitors earlier in 2024, MGM China experienced a slowdown in the latter half of the year. Rising expenses for new amenities and operational challenges are expected to impact margins in 2025.
Capital Investments and Strategic Goals
Focus on Expansion and Renovation
MGM is expected to increase capital expenditures in 2025, with plans for renovations at MGM Grand Las Vegas and potential investments in its Japan and New York properties. Securing a full casino license for Empire Resorts in New York could further bolster its portfolio, though it would require a $500 million licensing fee and facility upgrades.
Returning Value to Shareholders
MGM has been proactive in stock buybacks throughout 2024, a trend likely to continue into 2025. These efforts underscore the company’s commitment to maintaining strong investor confidence, even as it navigates shifting market conditions.
The Road Ahead: Balancing Innovation and Tradition
As MGM Resorts looks to the future, its success will hinge on balancing innovative digital ventures like BetMGM with the challenges facing its traditional casino operations. By embracing creative revenue strategies, focusing on transparency, and expanding its digital footprint, MGM aims to sustain growth and investor confidence in a competitive landscape.
A Deutsche Bank Outlook
Deutsche Bank’s $48 price target for MGM reflects a careful sum-of-the-parts valuation, placing significant emphasis on BetMGM’s potential to drive future growth. With strategic pivots and a focus on profitability, MGM’s 2025 outlook remains cautiously optimistic.
Macau’s gaming sector has unveiled its 2024 revenue figures, offering a mix of impressive annual growth and an unexpected dip in December. This marks the first decline in gross gaming revenue (GGR) in two years, setting the stage for reflection on the industry’s progress and its implications for the online gambling market.
December’s Decline: A Break in Momentum
For the first time since 2022, Macau’s GGR experienced a downturn. December 2024 revenue reached MOP 18.2 billion (approximately $2.28 billion), a 2% drop compared to the same period in 2023. Analysts have linked this dip to disruptions caused by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit, which affected border activities and casino operations.
Despite this decline, the annual GGR for 2024 showed a strong recovery, totaling MOP 226.8 billion ($28.4 billion), a 24% increase over 2023. The early months of the year, particularly January to March, saw significant growth driven by Chinese New Year celebrations, with monthly increases exceeding 50%. Growth slowed to an average of 16% for the remainder of the year, reflecting a gradual return to pre-pandemic activity levels.
Recovery and Adaptation: Lessons from Macau
While Macau’s GGR is steadily climbing, it remains below the pre-pandemic peak of MOP 292.4 billion recorded in 2019. The closest the region has come to this benchmark was in May 2024, with revenue of MOP 20.2 billion. The industry’s transition to a mass-market focus and reduced reliance on junkets has helped stabilize growth, offering valuable insights for the gambling industry as a whole.
For online gambling operators, Macau’s experience demonstrates the importance of aligning marketing efforts with key cultural and seasonal events. The success of the Chinese New Year period underscores the potential for targeted campaigns that resonate with players, both in physical casinos and online platforms.
The Road Ahead: Growth Opportunities
Macau’s recovery trajectory is expected to continue, with projections for 2025 suggesting GGR could reach MOP 240 billion ($30.1 billion). This optimism is fueled by increasing visitor numbers, which exceeded 35 million in 2024, surpassing earlier estimates.
Online gambling platforms can leverage this momentum by aligning their offerings with the evolving preferences of players, focusing on accessibility, innovation, and user engagement. The convergence of online and offline gambling strategies represents a significant opportunity to enhance market reach and resilience.
Macau’s story is not just one of recovery but also one of adaptation and innovation. For the online gambling sector, these lessons are invaluable in navigating a competitive and ever-changing landscape.
Major Stakeholder Pulls Out as Australian Casino Operator Faces Mounting Challenges
In a move highlighting growing concerns within the gaming sector, JPMorgan Chase has sold off its entire stake in Star Entertainment, Australia’s second-largest casino operator. The announcement, confirmed in a recent exchange filing, revealed that the investment banking giant had divested its 5.09% voting power in the embattled company.
A Casino Giant Under Fire
Star Entertainment has faced a turbulent few years marked by regulatory probes, financial instability, and reputational damage. Alongside rival Crown Resorts, now owned by Blackstone, the company has been at the centre of major investigations uncovering governance failings.
Regulators identified significant shortcomings in the company’s ability to prevent money laundering, monitor high-risk transactions, and manage links to organised crime. These revelations have triggered sweeping penalties, forced operational overhauls, and dealt severe blows to the company’s public image.
Adding to the strain, the COVID-19 pandemic decimated international tourism and led to prolonged casino closures, further impacting Star’s bottom line. With its liquidity under pressure and stock prices languishing at multi-year lows, the casino group has struggled to regain its footing in the market.
Regulatory Failures and Legal Battles
Since 2022, Star Entertainment has been under intense scrutiny for allegedly enabling wealthy gamblers to bypass mandatory financial checks. Reports pointed to questionable practices, such as facilitating Chinese debit card transactions through opaque methods, raising alarms over potential money laundering.
Authorities also flagged insufficient oversight of individuals linked to organised crime, allowing them to gamble large sums at Star’s properties. These failings have led to a series of stricter compliance measures but have yet to rebuild confidence among investors or regulators.
The casino operator’s challenges don’t stop there. It is also embroiled in legal disputes over its alleged role in a corporate fraud scandal involving Michael Gu. Gu, the mastermind behind the collapsed iProsperity Group, disappeared in 2020 after defrauding investors of an estimated A$391 million. Liquidators argue that Star, along with Crown Resorts, failed to detect or report suspicious gambling activity tied to Gu’s schemes, allowing funds to dissipate undetected.
JPMorgan’s Exit: A Strategic Shift
JPMorgan’s withdrawal underscores deepening concerns about Star Entertainment’s future. Analysts suggest that the casino group’s ability to resolve ongoing regulatory and legal issues will be critical to its survival.
While Star has initiated corrective measures, the road to recovery remains uncertain. For now, investor confidence remains low, with skepticism over the company’s capacity to restore financial stability and rebuild its tarnished reputation.
As the saga unfolds, all eyes are on Star Entertainment to see whether it can navigate its way out of this complex web of challenges or continue to falter under mounting pressures.
